UEFA Nations League: Italy Can Dump The Wounded Lions Into Second Tier

Italy vs England

Roberto Mancini’s Italy have a chance to heap more problems on England when the two teams meet at a pivotal point in the Nations League.

England are rock bottom of Group A3 with just two points to show for their opening four games and both teams come into the game on the back of a spanking; Italy were thumped 5-2 by Germany while England were humbled 4-0 by Hungary. And now this fixture, UEFA Nations League: Italy vs England, could determine the fate of either side.  

The latest SBOTOP odds back Italy at 3.25 to win the group, behind favourites Germany at 1.66 and ahead of Hungary at 5.00. England are as good as gone with odds of 101.00 on them pulling off a massive recovery to come out on top.

It’s not going to happen and Gareth Southgate’s team is much more likely to drop into Group B for the next tournament, while Italy aren’t safe quite yet.    

Talking Points

Italy’s huge incentive

The Azzurri are out of the World Cup finals for the second time in four years and that has been pretty hard to take for their fanatical supporters. Losing the semi-final play-off to North Macedonia was a nightmare for the Azzurri, just four years after they had suffered a similar fate. So with nothing else to worry about Mancini will make sure his team is fully focused on this game.

A win will assure they won’t suffer any further humiliation by dropping to Group B and that is something they can inflict on England. Captained by the rock, Leonardo Bonucci, who is likely to play alongside 23 year old Inter Milan’s Alessandro Bastoni in the centre of defence they will be hard to break down. And having just suffered a battering at the hands of Germany, Mancini is unlikely to use too may youngsters and will field some experienced campaigners.  

Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini has already weighed in with two goals in this competition and he will pick up a slot in the middle of the park alongside Inter Milan’s Nicola Barella. The Azzurri rarely uses players from outside the Italian league but there could be a place for West Ham’s striker Gianluca Scamacca up front with Lazio hitman Ciro Immobile and Napoli’s 22 year old forward Giacomo Raspadori.

And PSG keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is battling with Napoli’s Alex Meret for the goalkeeping jersey.  

England call up for Brentford’s Ivan Toney

England head coach Gareth Southgate has continued to show he will give players in form a chance by handing a place to Brentford star Ivan Toney in his 23 man squad. The Bees front man has not been capped by his country at any youth age and, after impressing in the Premier League, he has been courted by the Jamaican Football Federation; but Southgate has nipped in to give him a chance with the Three Lions.

He has scored 13 Premier League goals since January including a 28 minute hat-trick in Brentford’s recent 5-2 win over Leeds United. But Toney was stifled by Arsenal centre back William Saliba in the Bees 3-0 defeat to the Gunners on Sunday and he will meet another tough opponent in Bonucci…if he wins his first cap on Friday.  

England’s main man, Spurs striker Harry Kane is desperate for some silverware with either club or country and he will lead the Three Lions into the World Cup in Qatar.

He has scored England’s only goal in this competition in a 1-1 draw with Germany but the thought of dropping a league is not a pleasant one for the skipper. Even a win from one of England’s final two games, against Italy and Germany, won’t guarantee survival; and that means the prospect of playing against the likes of Albania and Montenegro looms large, while Europe’s top teams would compete in 2024/25 without the Lions.

History

These two proud nations have both been champions of the world, England once in 1966 and Italy four times, the last occasion being in 2006.  

The Azzurri have had the better of the head-to-head Italy vs England results with five victories to one, in all competitions since 1980, and there have been three draws. The last encounter was a bore draw in this competition in June as neither team could trouble the scorers. But the game before that was a blockbuster, as the Azzurri became European Champions by beating the Three Lions at Wembley on penalties. 

There is nothing to choose between these two in terms of recent results over six games; both have won two, drawn two and lost two but, crucially, England are winless in their last four.

Betting Tip

The Italy vs England betting odds can barely split these two, with England marginal favourites at a price of 2.53 while Italy are at 2.58 and the Draw is 3.06.

I don’t expect Italy to do England any favours here; the Azzurri’s pride is already hurt and they don’t rather any more pain went elsewhere.

 

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