England vs Italy
As the UEFA Nations League rounds off an already long campaign, let’s begin with some reflection.
It will be a year on Saturday since Euro 2020 opened in a sea of colour and sound.
Exactly a month later, Roberto Mancini’s men were at Wembley being crowned European champions after a penalty shootout which broke England’s hearts.
Since then, England have gone onto seal their place at this autumn’s World Cup with something to spare while Italy stunningly failed to qualify for the second successive tournament.
However, while that has been a body blow, would they swap their Euro triumph last summer for a place at the World Cup? I doubt it.
Is the prime focus for England the World Cup in Qatar in November and December? Almost certainly.
In that case then, it is difficult to know how much should be read into this Euro 2020 Final rematch given the Italians are embarking on a rebuild and England have other priorities.
So, should we expect this contest at Wolverhampton to produce UEFA Nations League 2022 highlights? Absolutely.
Talking Points
There certainly could be an unusual atmosphere with only a limited attendance at Molineux after the Football Association was hit with sanctions following crowd trouble at the Euro 2020 final.
The FA was fined £84,560 for “the lack of order and discipline” at the match after hundreds of ticketless fans got into Wembley and fought with stewards after areas around the stadium became packed hours before the evening kick-off.
The Italian side on display will also be very different from the last time they met England. Not that this will be a home banker, though.
An inexperienced Italy began their rebuilding job with an impressive home draw with Germany in a Nations League opener last week when the Azzurri opted to test out numerous raw players.
One of them, a young talent in 18 year-old substitute Wilfried Gnonto, set up Lorenzo Pellegrini for a 70th minute goal.
The livewire teenage forward began his career at Inter Milan before impressing Roberto Mancini with his displays at FC Zurich in Switzerland last season.
Indeed, the side fielded against Germany was shorn of almost all the names recognisable to the majority of fans outside Italy, with 23-year-old goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma the most experienced player with 44 caps.
That was followed up by first half goals from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Pellegrini, securing a 2-1 win for the Italians at home to Hungary.
On the same night, England drew in Germany thanks to an 88th minute penalty from captain Harry Kane.
Mancini acknowledges there is a long road ahead for the Azzurri so the Nations League seems the ideal competition to blood those young players.
He has raided the Under-21 squad for starlets like Gnonto and four or five players now in the senior Italy squad were actually in the current and former Under-21 two-year group – players like Sandro Tonali, Manuel Locatelli, Tommaso Pobega, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Davide Frattesi, and Alessandro Bastoni.
Barella has suggested like players like Locatelli, Tonali, and himself represent the future of the Italian national team.
We will get a glimpse of what an Italian future may look like on Saturday evening.
History
The teams have faced each other 28 times with the Azzurri winning 12 to England’s eight along with eight draws.
Italy failed to win any of their first eight meetings, while England have managed a solitary win in the last eight.
England have actually suffered tournament-ending losses in all three of their encounters in European Championships. As well as last summer, Marco Tardelli’s late goal earned the Azzurri a 1-0 win in the 1980 group stage, while Italy prevailed on penalties in the quarter-finals of Euro 2012.
Italy have never lost to England at a major finals with 2-1 World Cup victories in 1990 (third-place play-off) and 2014 (group stage) on top of those Euro triumphs.
The last time they met on English soil before last summer’s showpiece was a friendly in March 2018 at Wembley when Jamie Vardy’s opener was cancelled out by a late Lorenzo Insigne penalty.
Betting Tip
I am surprised that the SBOTOP Nations League 2022 betting odds favour England in such an emphatic manner.
Gareth Southgate’s men are priced 1X2 @ 1.82 in contrast to the Italians @ 4.40 and the draw is on offer @ 3.30.
With Asian Handicap odds, the hosts are available -0.75 @ 2.13 with Italy +0.25 @ 2.13.
A rerun of last year’s score after 90 minutes – Correct Score 1-1 – will pay out @ 6.00.
Options for goals (or lack of them) include total goal 0-1 @ 2.55, 2-3 @ 1.81, 4-6 @ 4.30 and over 2.50 goals @ 2.25. With that said, I am going to plump for England to edge the Italians this time.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:
⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)
⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))
⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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