La Liga: Barca Face Must-Win Match Against Atleti

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Barcelona’s hopes of defending their La Liga title hang delicately in the balance. They are now two points behind rivals Real Madrid in the standings after a draw at Celta Vigo and can’t afford to drop more points moving forward.

However, they must now face perhaps their toughest test left this season as they take on a red-hot Atletico Madrid side.

Atleti have been in brilliant form since returning to action, which has seen them jump back up to third in the table. They can now do their fierce rivals Real a huge favour by dealing another huge blow to Barca’s La Liga 2020 odds of winning the title.

Talking Points

Barca still brilliant at home

Barcelona were unable to break their Balaidos curse as they could only draw 2-2 with Celta Vigo over the weekend. They looked set to win away to Celta for the first time since 2015 after Luis Suarez bagged a brace, but Iago Aspas once again haunted the Catalans by scoring a late equaliser two minutes from time.

Barca significantly outshot Celta, 18-10, but Suarez’s two goals were the only shots they had on target.

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Lionel Messi, who is one goal away from reaching 700 in his career, was surprisingly off as all seven of his shot attempts missed the target. Although, he still set up both of Suarez’s goals as he topped 250 career assists.

But Messi will still like his chances of scoring goal no. 700 at the Camp Nou. He has scored 17 of his league-leading 21 goals this season at home.

Thanks in large part to Messi’s brilliance, Barca have once again been unbeatable at home this season. They’ve won 15 of 16 matches at the Camp Nou, with the one game the failed to win a goalless draw against Real Madrid in El Clasico.

They’ve also been quite impressive at the back; they’ve kept a clean sheet in four consecutive home matches.

Atleti in amazing form

Atletico Madrid have been right behind rivals Real as the team with the best La Liga 2020 results since the season restarted. They began with a 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao but have since reeled off four wins on the bounce.

Going back to before the pause in play, Atleti have now gone unbeaten in 12 matches unbeaten in all competitions (eight wins, four draws). That includes their famous round-of-16 triumph over holders Liverpool in the Champions League.

Granted, their opponents post-restart — Osasuna, Real Valladolid, Levante, and Alaves — are all in the bottom half of the table. Still, it’s a marked improvement from what Atleti were doing earlier in the season, which was drawing against teams they should be beating.

Diego Costa’s return to form has played a significant role in Atleti’s recent resurgence. The 31-year-old striker has two goals and two assists in his last five games; he had the same amount in his previous 13 league appearances.

Diego Costa manages to score in their recent La Liga match against Alaves — Diego Costa celebrates after scoring against Alaves

They have also gotten contributions from Joao Felix and Marcos Llorente, who was the unexpected hero of Atleti’s Champions League triumph over Liverpool at Anfield.

But this is still a Diego Simeone side, which means that defence remains their bread and butter. Atleti have conceded just twice in their five games since the restart.
However, it should be noted that Atleti’s away form this season has not been all that impressive. Before they won over Osasuna and Levante after the restart, they had won just three of 14 away matches (eight draws, three losses) and had gone winless in their last five (two losses, three draws).

History

Barcelona have absolutely dominated Atletico over the years. It’s now been a decade since Atleti have beaten Barca in the league. Barca have gone on to win 14 of their last 19 meetings, with five draws. Although, Atleti did beat Barca in the Spanish Super Cup semi-final 3-2 earlier this year.

Lionel Messi scored in that 3-2 loss, as well as the only goal in Barca’s 1-0 win over Atelti at the Wanda Metropolitano back in December.

Messi has been the main reason why Barca have had so much success against Atletico Madrid over the years. He’s scored an astonishing 25 goals in 27 career La Liga matches against Atleti, and 31 goals in 40 matches overall.

Betting Tip

	Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid	Under 2.50 @ 1.80
	July 01, 04:00 (GMT+8)

SBOBET odds peg Barcelona as 1.90 favourites to continue their winning ways at the Camp Nou, with Atletico priced at 3.95 to end that unbeaten run. Meanwhile, a draw is 3.45.

This is a tough match to call. Despite Messi and Barca’s dominance over Atletico over the years, they just haven’t been all that convincing this season. They have had a particularly hard time breaking down capable defences, so Atleti have a decent chance of keeping this match to a draw.

On the other hand, though, it’s never easy to bet against Messi, who can still produce a moment of magic, especially at the Camp Nou.

That’s why I’m going with under 2.5 goals as this match will likely be a tight and cagey affair. Each of the last five La Liga meetings between Barca and Atleti have had just two goals or fewer.