Euro 2024: Martinez’s Men Out to Maintain Momentum

Portugal vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

The former champions of Europe have made a rampant start to Euro 2024 qualifying and are out to cement their place at the top of the Group J standings this weekend.

It still hurts many Portuguese that they were on the receiving end last December when the axis of the football world was turned upside down.

When the full-time whistle sounded that afternoon, the only majority Islamic nation left in Qatar, the first Arabian country to host the tournament, were in a land beyond dreamland.

Amidst that euphoria, it was easy to forget just how much despair Portugal was plunged into after defeat by Morocco.

Now they want to bounce back from that World Cup quarter-final exit and deliver Euro 2024 qualifying highlights to reach next summer’s tournament.

However, Bosnia have shown they are not averse to going to top venues and winning so any home complacency could be seized upon in Lisbon.

Talking Points

All the statistics suggest Portugal will win.

They have a strong defensive record in European and World Cup qualifiers, conceding 11 in their previous 26 home matches and, of course, are on form.

They began their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign with a 4-0 win over Liechtenstein and followed that up with a 6-0 success in Luxembourg.

Bosnia have lost back-to-back away games, losing 4-1 to Romania (last September) and 2-0 to Slovakia, but they did see off Iceland 3-0 in their opening qualifier in March and are seen by some as the main threat to Portugal in the group.

That is partly because they are spearheaded by a duo from Milan with Rade Krunic and Edin Dzeko who are the only players to have scored more than once in Bosnia’s last six matches.

In addition, the national team has failed to find the net more than once in 13 of their previous 15 matches, so it is easy to see why the home side are clear favourites, especially when they have an embarrassment of attacking riches themselves.

Cristiano Ronaldo (four), Goncalo Ramos (three), Rafael Leao (two) and Bernardo Silva (two) have scored at least twice during that same period – and that’s without mentioning the output of Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes.

This match should be Ronaldo’s 199^th international game and another record beckons.

As the captain, who became the most-capped player in international history earlier this year and is already the leading scorer in football history, he would love nothing more than to compete in another major tournament and he should get his wish.

Taking all this into account, how can you bet against Roberto Martinez’s men who have won 10 of their previous 12 matches on home soil against opponents who have failed to win in 19 of 21 on their travels.

History

In four games, we have seen three Portugal wins and one draw in the brief history between the nations.

The first contests came five days apart in 2009 in a qualifying play-off for the following year’s World Cup.

Bruno Alves scored the only goal in Lisbon before Raul Meireles did the same for a 2-0 aggregate success in the return.

They met again two years later, this time in qualifiers for Euro 2022.

Again, it was in the play-off scenario and again Portugal triumphed.

After a goalless draw in Zenica, Ronaldo and co had far too much in the second leg as they romped to a 6-2 success.

Ronaldo (two) was joined on the scoreseheet by Nani, Helder Postiga (two) and Miguel Veloso.

A Zvjezdan Misimović (penalty) and Emir Spahić had kept the minnows in the contest until three goals in the final 18 minutes for the hosts.

Betting Tip

Portugal are overwhelming favourites with the SBOTOP Euro 2024 qualifying betting odds.

That should be no surprise given they are ranked ninth in the world compared to Bosnia in 57^th position.

The Selecao are priced 1X2 @ 1.19 and Asian Handicap -1.75 @ 1.77.

Bosnia are out at 1X2 @ 8.25 and Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 2.07.

The draw is on offer @ 6.40.

As goals have been low in all bar one of their meetings, the attraction of Total Goal 0-1 @ 4.10 may appeal, or even Under 2.75 goals @ 2.06.

I suspect there will be a fair few goals, though, as Ronaldo approaches another special milestone for his country.

After hitting a combined 10 past Liechtenstein and Luxembourg, I think they will be hungry for more and, while not on that scale, I am opting for a *** tip of Total Goals 4-6 @ 2.68.

 

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