Euro 2024: Croatia and Wales are the Favourites in Group D Qualifying

Croatia vs Wales

Wales will start a new chapter in their quest to qualify for Euro 2024, but they’ll face a tough test from the start of their qualifying campaign.

Rob Page’s men will pay a visit to the Stadion Poljud on Saturday, where they will face Croatia, who are coming off a third-place finish during last year’s World Cup. 

Croatia and Wales are alongside Armenia, Latvia, and Turkey in Group D of the qualifiers. The pre-tournament betting odds have these two nations as the favourites to advance, so this feels like the battle for the top spot.

So, who between Croatia and Wales will draw first blood in the group? Continue to read below as SBOTOP brings to you a sneak peek of this contest.

Talking Points

Croatia retain their World Cup core

It looks like Croatia will maintain essentially the same group that won them the bronze medal last December in Qatar, with Luka Modric still leading the way.

Luka Modric is turning 38 later this year and 40 when the 2026 World Cup rolls around. But he’s still one of the best playmakers in the world right now, still going strong for his mother club, Real Madrid, this season.

Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozovic will all play alongside Modric again, and all of them will offer invaluable experience to the rest of the squad.

The one notable omission for Zlatko Dalic is Dejan Lovren, who announced his retirement from international football last month.

With Lovren gone, this opens up new opportunities for Josko Gvardiol to shine, and he’ll pair up with fellow youngster Josip Sutalo.

Gvardiol is a man in demand as several big clubs are lining up for his signature, especially after a solid run during last year’s World Cup.

The 21-year-old is an imposing presence at centre-half and is light with his feet. He is essentially the modern-day centre-back, and he has a release clause set at $118 million that will be active in the summer of 2024.

Croatia have an aging roster, but they do have some young pieces to work with, ready to make an impact. Overall, it’ll be interesting to see how Zlatko Dalic oversees the transition of his team from old to young.

Who will step up for Wales?

Gareth Bale’s retirement is a considerable blow for Wales since he is arguably their best player ever. The former Real Madrid and Tottenham star owns the record for the most caps (111) and most goals (41), so trying to replace him is quite a daunting task for the Dragons.

Aaron Ramsey is now named as the captain for Wales, and he’ll play a crucial role as the team’s primary creative outlet. The 32-year-old currently plays for Nice in Ligue 1 after spending time with Rangers last season.

During a recent interview, Ramsey highlighted his excitement about trying to lead Wales’ new generation of players. They have talents such as Brennan Johnson, Ethan Ampadu, and Neco Williams, and they are capable of creating Euro 2024 highlights in the qualifiers.

History

Croatia have had Wales’ number in this particular fixture, as they’ve never lost in any of their six previous meetings (D2, L4).

Their most recent meeting was in the Euro 2020 qualifiers in October 2019, when Wales held Croatia to a 1-1 draw as Gareth Bale replied to Nikola Vlasic’s early goal.

Croatia have also won their last three home matches against Wales, defeating them in May 2010 (2-0, friendly), October 2012 (2-0, World Cup qualifiers), and June 2019 (2-1, Euro 2020 qualifiers).

Wales haven’t won in eight straight games since they qualified for the World Cup (D2, L6). And over that period, they have only netted six times, with half of those games going Under 2.00.

Betting Tip

The Euro 2024 odds are backing Croatia to win this weekend, as they’re installed at 1.61, while a Wales victory is at 5.00, and a draw is priced at 3.60 in the 1X2 market.

The difference in recent form is stark between Croatia and Wales, as the hosts are on a good run of form while the visitors have struggled since securing their spot for the World Cup.

While Wales can make it difficult for Croatia, the latter’s quality should shine through for them to claim the home win.

As for alternatives, you won’t go wrong going for Total Goals 2-3 at 1.83 since clean sheets are a rarity in this matchup, while going for Over 2.50 at 2.19 might be a plausible bet as well.

 

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