Champions League: Yellow Submarine Face Big Mission in Munich

Bayern Munich vs Villarreal

Villarreal are closing in on another shock Champions League conquest. After defeating Juventus in the round of 16, the Yellow Submarine have a 1-0 advantage to defend against title contenders Bayern Munich in their quarter-final second leg at the Allianz Arena.

Unai Emery’s side delivered a masterclass in the first leg and took one step closer to their second Champions League semi-final berth in club history.

However, they still have a lot of work to do in Bavaria, where the Champions League 2022 betting odds will have Bayern as big favourites to overturn their first-leg deficit.

Talking Points

Bayern remain unconvincing

Bayern just can’t seem to string consistently dominant performances together this season. Take their last three games after the international break. After thumping Freiburg 1-4 away from home, they went and lost away to Villarreal – their first away defeat in the Champions League since 2017.

Bayern bounced back with a 1-0 win over Augsburg in the Bundesliga this past weekend, but they also did not look completely convincing in that match as they needed a late Robert Lewandowski penalty to pick up all three points.

Julian Nagelsmann picked a mostly first-strength side for that match, although left-sided defenders Lucas Hernandez and Alphonso Davies were both rested. The two look set to return to the starting XI, though, while winger Kingsley Coman could also take the place of either Serge Gnabry or Leroy Sane.

While Bayern’s recent run of form has been unimpressive, they have proven they can still turn it on when it matters most. They were also handed a first-leg setback in 1-1 draw against RB Salzburg in the last round, but they rallied to win the second leg at home 7-1 thanks to a Lewandowski hat-trick.

Lewandowski, who is on 12 goals, remains the 1.28 favourite to finish as the Champions League’s top scorer this season, although Karim Benzema is right on his heels.

Nagelsmann picked an incredibly attacking formation against Salzburg, with Gnabry, Coman, Sane, and Thomas Muller all starting in behind Lewandowski. While that formation provided plenty of Champions League 2022 highlights as expected, midfielder Leon Goretzka is finally fit, so look for Bayen to stay with their more conventional 4-2-3-1 in the second leg.

Yellow Submarine rest stars ahead of second leg

Villarreal will come into their second-leg match against Bayern on the back of another mediocre La Liga result, a 1-1 home draw with Athletic Bilbao, this weekend.

The Yellow Submarine have won just one of their last five La Liga fixtures, with three defeats. That poor run has seen them sink down to seventh in the table, just a point ahead of Athletic.

Although, it should be noted that Unai Emery rested several key players ahead of their big Champions League clash. All their first-choice defenders did not start, as well as top strikers Gerard Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma, who only came on as substitutes.

Emery’s side delivered a terrific tactical display against Bayern in the first leg. The Yellow Submarine defence stood up well to Bayern’s pressure, with central midfielders Francis Coquelin and Giovani Lo Celso putting in strong defensive shifts out wide. But they also created their fair share of chances on goal as well and could have won by more than one.

With a 1-0 lead to protect in the second leg, Villarreal will have the luxury of setting up how Emery likes to in big European matches, especially away from home: on the counterattack.

Moreno and Danjuma are both quite capable of hurting Bayern on the break. Danjuma, in particular, has been deadly in the Champions League this season with six goals in nine appearances.

History

Villarreal’s first-leg win over Bayern was their first in three meetings against the German giants. Bayern had won their first two matches, which came in the group stage of the 2011 Champions League.

Bayern have a strong record at home against Spanish sides in the Champions League. They have won 20 of 30 matches, drawing six and losing only four.

Betting Tip 

SBOTOP odds have Bayern priced as massive 1.25 favourites to win the second leg at home. Villarreal are huge 9.00 underdogs, while a draw is at 6.20.

As Bayern showed in the last round against Salzburg, they have more than enough firepower to overturn a one-goal deficit, especially at home.

However, Emery and his Villarreal side will certainly not make things easy for the hosts, who will have a battle on their hands in the second leg. I expect quite a competitive contest in Munich, one that is likely to finish with under three goals.

 

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