Champions League: Semi-Final Place Up for Grabs at the Westfalenstadion

Borussia Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid

A place in the semi-finals of the Champions League awaits Borussia Dortmund or Atletico Madrid this week and, crucially, a chance to keep alive their hopes of silverware.

Yes, the likelihood is that both of these clubs may well return to this competition next season via their respective league finishes.

However, it’s far from certain that will be the case, even with both the Bundesliga and La Liga guaranteed at least four places each.

That would be a shock to the system for clubs that have become regulars at Europe’s top table over the past decade or so.

So, as they prepare to create Champions League 2024 highlights and set up a last-four tie against Barcelona or Paris Saint-Germain, the stakes are high.

Talking Points

Atletico have the advantage from last week’s first leg, but it is a slender one.

Trailing 2-0 after little more than half an hour, Dortmund rebelled, and a late Sébastien Haller goal has given them hope for the second leg, even if the comeback was left incomplete after they hit the bar twice in the final three minutes.

The inconsistency of the German side has been evident for some time now, even before they won 2-1 at Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday, a result which keeps them on the fringes of the top four.

Those Jekyll n’ Hyde displays were best summed up when, on Easter weekend, they went to rivals and reigning champions Bayern Munich and won there for the first time in a decade, securing their first Der Klassiker victory since 2019 in the process.

Fast forward a week, and they lost at home to Stuttgart, albeit a team ahead of them in the table.

At times last week, Atletico swarmed all over Dortmund with chances aplenty, and the Bundesliga outfit were dispossessed time and again by Diego Simeone’s relentless men.

Indeed, the Argentine manager’s reaction on the touchline suggested the spells of a more intense pressing game suited them and made Dortmund look vulnerable.

Whether there is more of the same remains unknown, as the home side have to go for it, and, for all of Atletico’s strengths, I never think of them as a counter-attacking unit.

Los Rojiblancos warmed up with a 3-1 victory over Girona, which keeps them fourth in La Liga.

It was a dream start for the visitors when Artem Dovbyk netted inside five minutes, but goals from Antoine Griezmann (two) and Angel Correa ensured a comeback victory for Simeone’s men.

It was not without cost, though, as Saul Niguez went off injured and is a major doubt for the second leg, while first-choice left wing-back Samuel Lino is suspended.

There’s not a clean bill of health for Dortmund either.

Ivorian striker Haller had to be withdrawn after just 10 minutes against Monchengladbach with a recurrence of a foot injury, while young winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens was also forced off with a back problem, although he is expected to be available for the trip to Spain.

Whichever side copes best with their absentees could have the edge.

History

Last time they met at the Westfalenstadion, in a 2018 group stage encounter, ended up being a 4-0 rout in Dortmund’s favour.

In the return, Atletico won their home game 2-0 with goals from Niguez and Griezmann.

Until then, the two clubs had not met for more than 20 years.

Dortmund may consider it a good omen, as they met in the group stages of the 1996–97 campaign, in which they were famously crowned European champions, surprisingly defeating then-red-hot favourites Juventus in the final.

That season, Atletico actually topped the group, with Dortmund progressing in second place.

They won in Spain thanks to a Stefan Reuter goal—a match in which Simeone was booked!

Atletico won the tie in Germany, however, when Roberto and Milinko Pantic cancelled out Heiko Herrlich’s opener in a 2-1 triumph.

Their only previous competitive meeting came in the quarterfinals of the 1966 European Cup Winners Cup, when Dortmund won 2-1 on aggregate en route to winning the competition final against Liverpool.

Betting Tip

Dortmund finished the first leg as the stronger of the sides and will be optimistic about overturning the 2-1 deficit, especially with the iconic ‘yellow wall’ behind them.

I just feel the cunning of Atletico under Simeone will frustrate the hosts.

In fact, to such an extent, I have even considered total goal 0-1 @ 3.92 as my prediction with the SBOTOP Champions League 2024 betting odds.

Instead, I have opted for Atletico to frustrate Dortmund at all costs and set up a potentially all-Spanish semi-final against Barcelona.

 

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