Anyone who is regular reader of this SBOTOP columnist will know his views on the new format of the Champions League. I have previously highlighted its folly, outlining what I believe to be the core issues. In September, I expressed the view that the quality of football won’t improve and, if anything, there will be more fatigued players come the end of the campaign. That viewpoint remains.
Furthermore, the eight match group stage format merely increases the chances of the European superpowers qualifying for the knockout stages which, presumably, is what many backers of the crassly thought-out Super League wanted in 2021 as opposed to the inconvenience of entertaining the smaller fry.
In theory, Euro giants could now lose three times and still make it – something which was very rare in the six match format.
And so here we are, in January, and there are still two group matches to come. Early Champions League 2025 highlights yes, but my feeling persists that any wonderful tales of underdogs potentially upsetting the giants are slimmer than ever.
Take, for example, the current standings ahead of the penultimate round of matches.
Under the previous format, by now the holders Real Madrid, English champions Manchester City and big-spending French champs Paris St Germain would all be out of the tournament.
Yet such is the extended group stage that all three can make it into the knockout stages should they get favourable results over the next few weeks.
Now, of course, you can rightly argue that, had there still been six group matches instead of eight, these big-hitters would not have necessarily have slipped up as they did in the autumn. We will never know, though.
Put it this way, in pretty much any given year, Real Madrid and PSG would have been unlikely to have qualified for the knockout stages with three group defeats.
A look at the Champions League 2025 betting odds now, however, shows that they are hurdles both clubs are expected to overcome.
Real are joint second favourites to lift the trophy, despite currently being 20th in the standings.
City are join third favourites, despite being in 22nd spot, and PSG, languishing in 25th, one place above the automatic top 24 qualifiers, are still backed as joint seventh favourites to win an elusive European crown (don’t put your money on them, incidentally – they are considerably weaker than the side which reached the 2020 showpiece).
And there you have it. As it stands, every club doesn’t just have a second chance after a defeat but a third chance which assists those with the deepest pockets.
I am not tying to be pessimistic, or even negative, but merely a realist.
Do you really believe that each of Monaco, Sporting Lisbon, Club Brugge or Celtic will be able to hold off the challenge of PSG?
Or that the two success stories of the Champions League before Christmas, French clubs Brest and Lille, can hold off the giants hot on their heels.
A one-off cup tie gives you a fighters’ chance, a six-game stage is a bigger ask, but eight matches and the laws of probability are highly stacked in favour of the clubs with the biggest resources.
They may sit 12th in Lique 1 but Stade Brestois are defying expectations in Europe.
Four victories and one draw in their first six outings has even left them in seventh place in the table – the top eight automatically qualify for the last 16 – also ahead of the likes of last season’s defeated finalists Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, AC Milan and Juventus.
Their last outing was a case in point of minnows triumphing against the odds as they had to dig deep to claim a famous victory. It was no mean feat to beat and shut out a prolific PSV side, but they did just that by snatching a goal late in the first half through Julien Le Cardinal’s first for the club and a string of superb saves by Marco Bizot, unquestionably the player of the match.
The club from the Finistère area of Brittany punched well above their weight during 2024, reaching unforeseen heights along the way. Éric Roy’s men lost just three Ligue 1 games from January until the end of last season, achieving their highest top-flight finish (third) in the process.
And while they have naturally struggled to replicate their historic achievements in the French top flight this term, ‘Les Pirates’ have gone onto be one of the biggest surprises in Europe.
If they and/or Lille can stay the pace and hold onto a top eight spot to secure automatic qualification (sides placed ninth-24th will contest last-32 play-off games), it will be a true triumph.
Call me cynical, but I doubt those behind the decision to alter the structure of Europe’s leading competition really wanted the likes of Brest and Lille at the party if it meant the likes of Real Madrid and PSG were missing out.
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