Bundesliga: BVB Must Bounce Back at Mainz

FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund don’t have much left to play for this season. They are safely in second in the Bundesliga, eight points behind runaway leaders Bayern Munich and six points ahead of third-placed Bayer Leverkusen.

But BVB will still be keen to bounce back from recent disappointments – headlined by their shock Europa League exit – in their upcoming match against Mainz.

The Bundesliga 2022 betting odds don’t fancy Mainz to defeat Dortmund. However, the 05ers have had their share of success against BVB in recent years and will be aiming to pull off another shock result in front of their home fans.

Talking Points

Dortmund in need of direction

Borussia Dortmund just can’t find any consistency in 2022. After thumping Freiburg 5-1, they lost to Bundesliga 2 side St. Pauli in the DFB-Pokal their very next game. After beating Union Berlin 3-0, they suffered a shock 4-2 defeat at home to Rangers.

And after smashing Borussia Monchengladbach 6-0, they then drew successive games away to Rangers – which saw them crash out of the Europa League – and to relegation-threatened Augsburg.

Granted, star striker Erling Haaland and captain Marco Reus were both unavailable against Augsburg. But still, they have struggled for consistency even with everyone fully healthy.

Haaland is still having injury problems according to Dortmund coach Marco Rose, so it seems unlikely he will make his return against Mainz.

Although, Marco Reus is back in training, which should be a huge boost. Reus has been in unbelievable form of late, with five goals and three assists in his last four Bundesliga matches.

The other good news for Dortmund is that Donyell Malen is finally producing some Bundesliga 2022 highlights after a slow start. The Dutch forward has scored twice in his last three games and looks set to lead the line once again in Haaland’s absence.

Overall, Dortmund have quite a decent away record in the Bundesliga. Prior to their draw at Augsburg, they had won their previous three away matches, scoring three goals in all three games.

Mainz still a tough out

Mainz’s modest three-game unbeaten run finally came to an end as they lost to seventh-placed Union Berlin, 3-2. The 05ers had been in decent form prior to that defeat. Their three-match unbeaten streak included shock home wins against sixth-placed Hoffenheim and third-placed Leverkusen.

Mainz went down to 10 men for the last half hour against Union after defensive midfielder Dominik Kohr was sent off for two quick yellow cards. Kohr will now be suspended against Dortmund.

The Union defeat was a surprising result as it marked just the third time Mainz – the fourth-best defensive record in the Bundesliga with just 29 goals conceded – had given up three or more goals in the league this season. The first two times came in a 4-0 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund and a 4-1 defeat at RB Leipzig.

Meanwhile, Mainz are still waiting on leading scorer Jonathan Burkardt (7 goals) to snap out of his lengthy goalscoring drought. The 21-year-old has not found the back of the net since early December.

But playing at the MEWA Arena usually brings out the best in Mainz. They have scored 24 of their 35 league goals this season at home while conceding just seven. Unsurprisingly, they have one of the best home records in the league with eight wins, three draws, and just one defeat – the fewest in the league.

History

Unsurprisingly, Borussia Dortmund have a sizable 17-4 advantage over Mainz in terms of Bundesliga wins, with four draws.

However, it may surprise some to know that Mainz have produced a couple of shock results against BVB. In 2020, they actually beat Dortmund 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park thanks to goals from Jonathan Burkardt and Jean-Philippe Mateta. Mainz then shocked BVB again the following season by holding them to a 1-1 draw at Dortmund.

However, Borussia Dortmund have brought back some sense of normalcy with back-to-back 3-1 wins. Marco Reus scored in both of those wins, while Erling Haaland bagged a brace in their first meeting this season.

Betting Tip

SBOTOP odds have Borussia Dortmund pegged as only slight 2.25 favourites to beat Mainz, who have 3.25 odds to get the home win. A draw is priced at 3.15.

Despite their wildly inconsistent form, Borussia Dortmund with these odds seem like a good bet to get the win in this spot. They will be desperate to get back on track after their recent cup and league disappointments. And with Marco Reus set to return to the lineup, they should have just enough quality to overcome plucky Mainz.

 

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