Premier League: Brighton Face the Bruised and Dangerous Sky Blues

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City

After watching his team lose 4-1 to Sporting Lisbon this week Pep Guardiola is in the odd position of trying to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat as Manchester City boss; and the task of making his plight even more painful falls to Brighton and Hove Albion this Saturday.  

Fabian Hurzeler’s introduction to Premier League football has gone pretty well but his Seagulls come into the game on the back of two defeats to Liverpool. Brighton are handily placed in eighth position while the Sky Blues are second in the table. A win for City would take them to the top and put the pressure on the league leading Reds who face Aston Villa in the late Saturday kick-off.    

Despite their current blip (or slump if it gets any worse) the latest Premier League 2024 betting odds still make the Sky Blues favourites to win the title. and I suspect Brighton may suffer a backlash this weekend.

 

Talking Points

Welbeck’s renaissance is good news for Brighton

The Seagulls’ double header date with Liverpool turned out to be a fruitless endeavour but Hurzeler’s side fought hard, losing by the odd goal in each game, 3-2 in the Carabao Cup and 2-1 in the Premier League. The games were peculiar in one aspect as in-form striker Danny Welbeck failed to get on the score sheet in either, though admittedly he was rested for the cup match and he made an assist for Ferdi Kadioglu in the league defeat.

Now 33 years of age the former Manchester United forward is in the form of his life, with six goals in his ten appearances as well as his two assists. Strong, quick and good in the air, Welbeck is known for his tireless work-rate and Hurzeler will use him carefully. But he is a superb mentor for younger players like Evan Ferguson and he has scored some crucial goals, the winner in a recent match with Newcastle United, while both Welbeck and Ferguson scored in a 2-2 draw with Wolves.

Brighton have struggled with injuries but there may be some bodies returning this weekend. Striker Joao Pedro is in a race to be fit while winger Solly Marsh is being assessed and centre back Lewis Dunk will face a late fitness test. Brighton under Hurzeler have put together a good set of Premier League 2024 results so far and, if they can get experience back on the pitch, they will continue to thrive…but they face another extremely difficult task on Saturday.    

 

Kovacic is key for City

The Sky Blues had a chastening night in Lisbon as Sporting romped to a 4-1 win under the incoming Manchester United boss Ruben Amorin, and Guardiola has been at pains to say that injuries will make things more difficult for his team. Creative midfielder Jack Grealish is currently sidelined as is defender Ruben Dias while utility man John Stones is currently being assessed. But the missing man causing most anxiety is Ballon D’Or winner Rodri, who has been such a pivotal player over the past few seasons. The Spain star is out for the campaign but Guardiola may quickly have found a replacement in Mateo Kovacic. The 30 year old Croatia star is occupying the Number Six position, just in front of defence, and he is doing so impressively.

Kovacic currently has a pass completion rate of almost 94 per cent, higher than Rodri’s 92 per cent past season, and the ability to find a man and launch attacks is fundamental to the role. Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne are constantly on Kovacic’s radar and if they can feed 11 goal Erling Haaland then the goals will come. Rodri has a knack of weighing in with crucial goals himself and Kovacic is showing he too can bag a winner, scoring three already this season.

 

History

Manchester City have bossed this relationship with 13 wins to Brighton’s two over the past 15 years and Guardiola’s side have won five of the last six meetings, doing the double last season with a 4-0 victory at the Amex Stadium in April as they romped towards a fourth consecutive league title.     

With three wins and three draws from the last six games the Sky Blues’ form is shockingly bad by their high standards, but it is slightly better than the Seagulls who have won two drawn one and lost three.

 

Betting Tip

Brighton are at SBOTOP odds of 3.68 to win this game with the Sky Blues at 1.73 and the draw is 3.56; while 2-1 to City at a price of 7.33 is the joint most likely outcome with 1-1 at the same price. I just can’t see the Sky Blues missing out for the fourth game running so I’m backing an away win.   

   

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