Champions League: A Semi-Final Showdown for the Ages Awaits

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

When it comes to Real Madrid in the Champions League, the stats speak for themselves. This is Los Blancos’ tenth semi-final appearance in the last 12 seasons and they are eyeing a sixth European crown since 2014, along with a 15th European Cup in total.

To give that some context, no other club has won more than AC Milan’s seven.

Despite all of that, they are not favourites for this tie against arguably the richest club in the world.

Indeed, many feel it is the destiny of Manchester City to be crowned champions of Europe this season.

Furthermore, they have a record-breaking striker in their ranks shooting down everyone before them.

The scene is set for a potential classic.

Talking Points

Let me take you back just over 12 months to exactly the same stage of the competition and a first leg which will live long in the memory of neutrals as the two sides produced the joint-highest scoring ever Champions League semi-final.

Somehow, though, the drama was not over.

The following week, I can still remember leaving the hotel restaurant where I was enjoying a few days’ holiday with City 1-0 up in the second leg in Madrid and 5-3 ahead on aggregate with minutes remaining.

By the time I got back to the hotel room and checked the score, I could not believe what I was seeing.

The remarkable turnaround saw Rodrygo score twice – in the 90^th minute and then in stoppage time – before Karim Benzema’s extra-time penalty won the day and sealed a 6-5 aggregate victory.

As reporter Simon Hart said at the time: ‘In some ways, Madrid’s progress to their 17th final in this competition defies all logic. As against Paris (PSG) and Chelsea, they looked down and out. Yet again, though, they dug deep and found a way. No Madrid side had previously overturned a first-leg semi-final deficit in this competition, yet this is no ordinary side. Ancelotti’s men simply don’t know when they’re beaten – and thanks to Rodrygo’s late, late double and Benzema’s spot kick, Paris beckons. The Bernabéu has worked its magic once more.’

Twelve months on and, while City are favourites to avenge that defeat, they were a year ago also so how could anybody dare to write off Madrid?

The ease with which Carlo Ancelotti’s side dispatched Chelsea (4-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals) showed just how much belief and confidence the Spanish side possess in this competition and they come into this contest off the back of winning the Copa del Rey.

City come into it as Premier League leaders, unbeaten since February and with a player in Erling Haaland who has taken his Champions League tally to 12 for the season, and is still in with a chance at breaking a long-standing record.

The 17 goals Cristiano Ronaldo scored for Madrid in the 2013/14 campaign is yet to be bettered in a single campaign but, if City manage to progress to the final, it would mean Haaland has three games to score at least six goals and make history.

It is a tall ask for sure but, if anybody can do it, the 22-year-old goal machine can – he already has taken just 27 games to reach 35 Champions League goals.

So many talking points, so many strengths. A fascinating semi-final awaits.

History

These sides have had some key clashes in the past decade.

None more so of course than in the semi-finals last season.

They met in the 2016 semi-finals too, drawing 0-0 in Manchester before Fernando’s own goal at the Santiago Bernabéu took Real to the final, where they beat city rivals Atletico on penalties.

Pep Guardiola’s men avenged that defeat in 2020, with 2-1 success away – a night when Sergio Ramos received the 26^th red card of his career and Manchester City came of age in Europe – and then at home on a night when City took advantage of Real defensive errors.

I billed that as the match of the week anywhere in world football and this Tuesday’s clash is exactly the same.

The sides’ only other competitive fixtures came in the 2012/13 group stage when Madrid twice came from behind to win 3-2 in Spain on Matchday 1. City led twice through Edin Džeko (68) and Aleksandar Kolarov (85) but Madrid responded through Marcelo (76) and Benzema (87) before Cristiano Ronaldo snatched a 90th-minute victory.

The return in Manchester ended one-apiece with Sergio Agüero’s penalty cancelling out Benzema’s 10^th minute opener.

Those four points helped José Mourinho’s Madrid finish second in Group D, behind Borussia Dortmund; City, then managed by Roberto Mancini, ended bottom with three points having not won a game.

Betting Tip

It says much that City are favourites to win in the backyard of the Spanish and European champions.

They are priced 1X2 @ 2.16 and Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 2.17 with the SBOTOP Champions League betting odds.

They are attractive odds, of course, as are Real 1X2 @ 2.91 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.02.

I’ve considered goal options such as total 0-1 @ 3.90, 4-6 @ 2.98 and even a repeat of the second leg of their semi-final in Spain last season with Correct Score 3-1 on offer @ 29.00.

Two bets that really have me tempted are Half Time Full Time Draw Home @ 7.60 and Draw Draw 4.90. However, I have decided to go for a *** prediction of 1X2 Draw @ 3.40.

 

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